Climate Prediction

Total Credit So Far....

2009-04-29T18:20:00.003-05:00

Our group has worked through 11,305 units so far, in our first model we are 68% through and in our second model we are 82% through.

Asthma and Human Induced Climate Change

2009-04-23T17:51:00.005-05:00

What is a disease or disorder that is thought to be caused in part by human-induced climate change?

Asthma is a disorder thought to be caused in children, in part by human-induced climate change. “Asthma is a chronic, long-term illness in which the airway becomes blocked or narrowed. This is usually temporary, but it causes shortness of breath, trouble breathing, and other symptoms. If asthma becomes severe, the person may need emergency treatment to restore normal breathing"(1).

Here is a picture of normal and asthmatic bronchiole in the lungs (3):

Even though children’ lungs are smaller than adults they are exposed to the same density of pollutants; however, they receive a higher concentration of it. This puts children at a higher risk of developing asthma in life.

The major environmental pollutants that have been linked to asthma are ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter. It can also be triggered by increased level of pollen in the air which is caused by earlier start of the growing season, longer growing season, faster plant growth, increased air pollution.

Discuss what portion of it’s variation in phenotype (or the appearance of the disorder) is due to variations in the environment:

To some extent allergies run in families. Children who have brothers, sister or parents that have asthma are more likely to develop the illness themselves. If both parents have asthma the risk is greater than if only one parent has it. It appears even higher if the mother has asthma than if the father does. (1)

As the earth's climate is changing, we are seeing an increase in global temperatures. This increase means earlier spring wich increase pollen production by plants and pollinating species. Without the colder winters to kill of pollen producing plants, they are staying around longer and causing more allergies and possible asthma attacks(4).

Research finding show that rather than inheriting asthma itself, we inherit the tendency to develop asthma. This inherited tendency will only come to fruition if we are exposed to the environmental stimuli that cause asthma. (5)

(1) www.aafa.org
(2) asthma.about.com
(3) www.bio.davidson.edu
(4) www.timesonline.co.uk
(5) Ahmed, I. et al. Asthma and Genetics. Brooklyn College of the City of New York.
(6) The chart is from: www.medscape.com/viewarticle/510992_5

Questions Prompted by an Interview With Dr. Anthony Barnosky

2009-03-25T17:49:00.002-05:00

These questions were posed to us after reading an interview with Dr. Anthony Barnosky and a third party. Following are our original responses:

Do you believe that climate change induced by humans can lead to speciation?

Climate changes induced by humans does not lead speciation, but more likely to extinction. This is due to the fact that the pressures humans put on the climate cause the climate to change so fast that animals are not capable of speciation at that rate. Evolution is always one step behind the environment, so if the environment, i.e. the climate, is rapidly changing “biodiversity will not have time to regenerate” (Barnosky 2006). Some scientists worry that rate of evolution could be overtaken by human induced climate change to such an extreme that extinction will significantly overshadow biodiversity in future generations (Barnosky 2007).

The environment represents selection pressures. How then, based on this interview and your interview with Don Harman, can global climate change affect (or effect) organismal evolution?

Global climate change can significantly affect organismal evolution as a selection pressure on a population. As climate change alters the natural habitat of a population, that population must adapt, move, or face extinction. Faced with these choices, a population may become isolated making them highly vulnerable to selective pressures (Barnosky 2006). These selection pressures cause morphological changes in that population through a lack of gene flow, bottleneck effect, founder effect, and other mechanisms.

Which do you think is a better predictor of the future consequences of climate change, fossils or grid-computing algorithms? Why?

Fossil records give us insight as to what the climate was like in the past. Barnosky states that fossil records “delimit the bounds of what is normal and compare what is happening today with what is normal in the absence of humans” (Barnosky 2006). On the other hand, grid-computing algorithms predict past and future climates based on a short history in the presence humans. We think it is important to combine both of these applications in order to better predict future consequences of climate change.

Do you agree with the statement by Dr. Barnosky that “humans have changed evolution”? Why or why not?

No. Humans have not changed evolution. They have changed the pressures that organismal populations face though means of habitat destruction, pollution, hunting and poaching, etc. Evolution is defined as the change in allele frequencies over time, and humans have not changed that. They have merely increased the selective pressures on populations. This may appear as though humans have changed evolution, but really humans have reduced the amount of time populations have to adapt to their environment.

Research and explain why the “Red Queen” and “Court Jester” hypotheses are known as such.

These opposing evolutionary views are taken from Lewis Carroll’s Red Queen’s Race in Through the Looking Glass. The “Red Queen” hypothesis says that the biotic interactions are the most important drivers of evolution. On the other hand, the “Court Jester” hypothesis says that physical environment perturbations (i.e. climate change) are the most important driver of evolution.

An Interview with Don Harman

2009-03-09T10:40:00.003-05:00

This is the updated interview of Don Harman the morning meteorologist of Fox 4 News. Recorded on February 26, 2009.

(This is a re-post of the podcast that was published on February 27, 2009. It was reposted in order to fix some glitches in the preview post)

A Update of Info!

2009-02-19T21:33:00.003-06:00

We are planning on interviewing Don Harman, morning meteorologist at Channel 4, next week about his thoughts on climate change. So look out for our soon-to-come interview post!

Also, on March 28th at 8:30pm, Earth Hour is happening. What is Earth Hour? It is simply an hour that the World Wildlife Fund is asking everyone (you, me, businesses, governments, other organizations) to turn their lights off for an hour (EarthHourUS.org). It is happening in cities all over the world. Time zone by time zone. By doing this, we will demonstrate our concern for climate change and willingness to find solutions.

Visit EarthHourUS.org or WWF.org for more information.

A Little Background Info

2009-02-01T17:15:00.003-06:00

According to ClimatePrediction.Net, the purpose of modelling the earth's climate is simple. They say that "Climate change, and our response to it, are issues of global importance, affecting production, water resources, ecosystems, energy demand, insurance costs and much else. There is a broad scientific consensus that the Earth will probably warm over the coming century; climateprediction.net should, for the first time, tell us what is most likely to happen"(ClimatePrediction.Net).

Helping predict the earth's climate over the next so many years is important to multiple aspects of our lives. ClimatePrediction.Net uses General Circulation Models/ Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate as many variables of the climate. It takes into account things like amount of precipitation, the way the air moves, how ice forms, and circulation of radiation (ClimatePrediction.Net). By using a GCM, grid computing takes the power of thousands of linked computers to complete mathematical equations that pay attention to the smallest details of the climate's ever changing behavior.

One unique aspect about this model, is that it simulates past climate observations as well as ones of the present. This way it is more capable of predicting better future climate observations. By predicting what Earth's climate will be like in the future, perhaps we can better prepare for natural disasters or even how and where to grow crops.

2009-01-28T12:19:00.002-06:00

As of this last weekend, our grid is up and running!

We are running the grid off of ClimatePrediction.Net and will post more information about it later.